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Lech Poznań II vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
10/3/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lech Poznań II38%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.41
Garbarnia Kraków
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
63%
Lech Poznań II or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
62%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
18%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
76%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
41%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
17%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
75%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
40%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
51%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
38%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
37%

Lech Poznań II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Lech Poznań II 1–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Lech Poznań II and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.