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Lech Poznań II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
6/5/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 37Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Lech Poznań II33%
×Draw25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.29
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.47

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 87 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
59%
Lech Poznań II or Chojniczanka Chojnice
75%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
67%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
72%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
37%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
77%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
43%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
45%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
33%
level
25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
41%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Lech Poznań II 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Lech Poznań II 2-1 in II Liga - East on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.