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Lecco vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Lecco
Lecco
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
12/26/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco30%
×Draw26%
Sudtirol44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecco
1.15
Sudtirol
1.44

Sudtirol creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lecco
1.00
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Lecco
1.79
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lecco or draw
56%
Lecco or Sudtirol
74%
Draw or Sudtirol
70%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+
12%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals
68%
Lecco 2+ goals
32%
Lecco 3+ goals
11%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
76%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
42%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)
41%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lecco scores more
30%
level
26%
Sudtirol scores more
44%

Sudtirol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecco vs Sudtirol

Lecco beat Sudtirol 2-1 in Serie B on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Lecco.