Lecco 0–0 Giana Erminio: Result & Stats

Lecco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Giana Erminio

9/28/2025

League #138 · Girone A - 7Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lecco42%

×Draw37%

Giana Erminio21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeccoExpected goals in this matchGiana Erminio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.54

Lecco

0.89

Giana Erminio

0.54

Lecco creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

0.88

creates per match

0.58

0.50

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Lecco

0.88

Giana Erminio

0.58

allows per match

Lecco

0.50

Giana Erminio

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par

Giana Erminio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Giana Erminio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–113%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

17%83%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Lecco or draw

79%

Lecco or Giana Erminio

63%

Draw or Giana Erminio

58%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+

15%

Giana Erminio wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals

59%

Lecco 2+ goals

22%

Lecco 3+ goals

6%

Giana Erminio 1+ goals

42%

Giana Erminio 2+ goals

10%

Giana Erminio 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)

66%

Giana Erminio (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Giana Erminio away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 0.88 + Giana Erminio defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Giana Erminio attack 0.58 + Lecco defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lecco scores more

42%

level

37%

Giana Erminio scores more

21%

Lecco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lecco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

N. Zanellato

33'

L. Ruffini

46'

A. Mallamo← D. Voltan

46'

A. Metlika← S. Bonaiti

46'

A. Albertini← N. Previtali

54'

59'

64'

66'

66'

F. Akammadu← A. Capelli

73'

A. Galeandro← N. Zanellato

73'

L. Romani← L. Marrone

74'

M. Battistini

74'

F. Renda← G. Gabbiani

81'

J. Nelli← E. Occhipinti

89'

G. Pellegrino← M. Rizzo

90+7'

D. Pinto

Lecco

Giana

1

Zenti

26

▼

Previtali

13

Colombara

27

Alborghet

90

▼

Vitale

23

▼

14

10

24

11

▼

Capelli

97

▼

1

13

18

4

▼

Marrone

45

▼

Rizzo

8

▼

Voltan

5

▼

Zanellato

14

▼

80

25

10

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲A. Mallamo←▼D. Voltan

46'▲A. Metlika←▼S. Bonaiti

73'▲A. Galeandro←▼N. Zanellato

73'▲L. Romani←▼L. Marrone

89'▲G. Pellegrino←▼M. Rizzo

Lecco substitutes

22Dalmasso90Constant6Mallamo9Alaoui11Galeandro17Pellegrino20Mihali21Metlika26Frigerio33Lovisa41Romani78Anastasini

46'▲A. Albertini←▼N. Previtali

66'▲D. Pinto←▼V. Vitale

66'▲F. Akammadu←▼A. Capelli

74'▲F. Renda←▼G. Gabbiani

81'▲J. Nelli←▼E. Occhipinti

Giana Erminio substitutes

12Magni22Mazza3Nucifero19Duca8Nelli20Renda33Albertini7Pinto9Akammadu37Lischetti