Lecco 0–1 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Lecco

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cremonese

2/3/2024

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco27%

×Draw26%

Cremonese47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeccoExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.51

Lecco

1.09

Cremonese

1.51

Cremonese creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 117 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.79

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Lecco

1.00

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Lecco

1.79

Cremonese

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lecco or draw

53%

Lecco or Cremonese

74%

Draw or Cremonese

73%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+

11%

Cremonese wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals

66%

Lecco 2+ goals

30%

Lecco 3+ goals

10%

Cremonese 1+ goals

78%

Cremonese 2+ goals

44%

Cremonese 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)

37%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lecco scores more

27%

level

26%

Cremonese scores more

47%

Cremonese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff