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Lecco vs Como — Serie B 2018

Lecco
Lecco
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Como
Como
2/27/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco30%
×Draw25%
Como45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecco
1.22
Como
1.54

Como creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Lecco
1.00
Como
1.30

allows per match

Lecco
1.79
Como
1.44

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par
Como+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lecco or draw
55%
Lecco or Como
75%
Draw or Como
70%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+
13%
Como wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals
70%
Lecco 2+ goals
34%
Lecco 3+ goals
12%
Como 1+ goals
79%
Como 2+ goals
45%
Como 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)
40%
Como (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Como away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Como defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Como attack 1.30 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lecco scores more
30%
level
25%
Como scores more
45%

Como at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Lecco 0–3 Como

Como beat Lecco 3-0 in Serie B on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Lecco.