Lecco 1–1 Cittadella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Lecco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cittadella

4/1/2024

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco30%

×Draw27%

Cittadella43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeccoExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.35

Lecco

1.09

Cittadella

1.35

Cittadella creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.79

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Lecco

1.00

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Lecco

1.79

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lecco or draw

57%

Lecco or Cittadella

73%

Draw or Cittadella

70%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+

12%

Cittadella wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals

66%

Lecco 2+ goals

30%

Lecco 3+ goals

10%

Cittadella 1+ goals

74%

Cittadella 2+ goals

39%

Cittadella 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)

41%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lecco scores more

30%

level

27%

Cittadella scores more

43%

Cittadella at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff