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Lecco vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Lecco
Lecco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bari
Bari
12/3/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 15Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco31%
×Draw26%
Bari42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecco
1.18
Bari
1.42

Bari creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 82 away

creates per match

Lecco
1.00
Bari
1.05

allows per match

Lecco
1.79
Bari
1.35

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par
Bari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lecco or draw
58%
Lecco or Bari
74%
Draw or Bari
69%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+
13%
Bari wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals
69%
Lecco 2+ goals
33%
Lecco 3+ goals
12%
Bari 1+ goals
76%
Bari 2+ goals
41%
Bari 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)
42%
Bari (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Bari away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Bari defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bari attack 1.05 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lecco scores more
31%
level
26%
Bari scores more
42%

Bari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lecco 1 – 0 Bari

Lecco beat Bari 1-0 in Serie B on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Lecco.