Lecco U19 2–5 Reggiana U19: Result & Stats

Lecco U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Reggiana U19

3/21/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 24Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lecco U1956%

×Draw20%

Reggiana U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lecco U19Expected goals in this matchReggiana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.47

Lecco U19

2.30

Reggiana U19

1.47

Lecco U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

2.31

creates per match

1.06

1.88

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Lecco U19

2.31

Reggiana U19

1.06

allows per match

Lecco U19

1.88

Reggiana U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecco U19+0.00on par

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Lecco U19 or draw

76%

Lecco U19 or Reggiana U19

80%

Draw or Reggiana U19

44%

Winning margin

Lecco U19 wins by 2+

35%

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lecco U19 1+ goals

90%

Lecco U19 2+ goals

67%

Lecco U19 3+ goals

40%

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

77%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

43%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lecco U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco U19 attack 2.31 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.30

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + Lecco U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lecco U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Reggiana U19 scores more

24%

Lecco U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lecco U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff