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Lecco U19 vs Pro Vercelli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Lecco U19
Lecco U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Pro Vercelli U19
Pro Vercelli U19
10/4/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 4Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lecco U1948%
×Draw22%
Pro Vercelli U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecco U19
1.94
Pro Vercelli U19
1.50

Lecco U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lecco U19
2.31
Pro Vercelli U19
1.13

allows per match

Lecco U19
1.88
Pro Vercelli U19
1.57

finishing

Lecco U19+0.00on par
Pro Vercelli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco U19 ↓

Pro Vercelli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lecco U19 or draw
70%
Lecco U19 or Pro Vercelli U19
78%
Draw or Pro Vercelli U19
52%

Winning margin

Lecco U19 wins by 2+
27%
Pro Vercelli U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lecco U19 1+ goals
86%
Lecco U19 2+ goals
58%
Lecco U19 3+ goals
30%
Pro Vercelli U19 1+ goals
78%
Pro Vercelli U19 2+ goals
44%
Pro Vercelli U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lecco U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Pro Vercelli U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Pro Vercelli U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco U19 attack 2.31 + Pro Vercelli U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pro Vercelli U19 attack 1.13 + Lecco U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lecco U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Pro Vercelli U19 scores more
30%

Lecco U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lecco U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecco U19 vs Pro Vercelli U19

Lecco U19 beat Pro Vercelli U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Lecco.