Lecce 0–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Lecce

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

3/2/2021

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lecce60%

×Draw23%

Virtus Entella18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.86

Lecce

1.80

Virtus Entella

0.86

Lecce creates 109% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

1.98

creates per match

0.68

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Lecce

1.98

Virtus Entella

0.68

allows per match

Lecce

1.04

Virtus Entella

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

82%

Lecce or Virtus Entella

77%

Draw or Virtus Entella

40%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

34%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

83%

Lecce 2+ goals

54%

Lecce 3+ goals

27%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

58%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

21%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

77%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.98 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.80

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Lecce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lecce scores more

60%

level

23%

Virtus Entella scores more

18%

Lecce at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

68

A. Russo

Virtus Entella · G

9.2

Match Events

52'

Andrea Paolucci

61'

A. Settembrini← M. Brescianini

61'

L. Nizzetto← A. Paolucci

65'

G. Yalçın← S. Pettinari

65'

F. Poli← M. Chiosa

66'

A. Capello← M. Mancosu

70'

Filippo De Col

73'

Güven Yalçın

73'

Michele Pellizzer

76'

Ž. Majer← L. Henderson

76'

M. Stępiński← Pablo Rodríguez

77'

Mariusz Stępiński

81'

M. Coda← J. Björkengren

82'

L. Paganini← C. Maggio

90'

Žan Majer

90'

Luca Nizzetto

90+2'

V. Dragomir← A. Schenetti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceVirtus

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots7

9Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots7

7On Target0

8Off Target5

5Blocked2

16Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

623Total Passes288

535Accurate Passes196

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1