Lecce 0–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lecce

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sassuolo

2/25/2023

Serie A · Round 24Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Lecce36%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

Lecce

1.28

Sassuolo

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

0.91

creates per match

1.16

1.46

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lecce

0.91

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Lecce

1.46

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

63%

Lecce or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

64%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

16%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

72%

Lecce 2+ goals

37%

Lecce 3+ goals

14%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

73%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

38%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

49%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.91 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Lecce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lecce scores more

36%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

37%

Sassuolo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff