Lecce 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lecce

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sassuolo

Filippo Falco 42'

Gianluca Lapadula 18'

Domenico Berardi 85'

Jeremy Toljan 35'

11/3/2019

Serie A · Round 11Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Lecce35%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.34

Lecce

1.28

Sassuolo

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

0.91

creates per match

1.23

1.46

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lecce

0.91

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Lecce

1.46

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

62%

Lecce or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

65%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

15%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

72%

Lecce 2+ goals

37%

Lecce 3+ goals

14%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

74%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

39%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

48%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.91 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Lecce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lecce scores more

35%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

38%

Sassuolo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Domenico Berardi

Sassuolo · F

8.0

Match Events

15'

Filippo Falco← Khouma Babacar

18'

Gianluca Lapadula

35'

Jeremy Toljan↳ Manuel Locatelli

37'

Manuel Locatelli

40'

Evgen Shakhov← Andrea Tabanelli

42'

Filippo Falco

45'

Jeremy Toljan

60'

Marco Calderoni

66'

Filip Đuričić← Hamed Junior Traorè

71'

Davide Riccardi← Žan Majer

74'

Evgen Shakhov

81'

Alfred Duncan← Giorgos Kyriakopoulos

82'

Pedro Obiang

85'

Domenico Berardi

86'

Federico Peluso← Manuel Locatelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceSassuolo

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots13

6Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target3

2Off Target7

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

372Total Passes614

303Accurate Passes551

81%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3