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Lecce vs Sampdoria — Serie A 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
M. Mancosu 50' (pen)
G. Ramirez 75' (pen), 40' (pen)
7/1/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 29Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lecce37%
×Draw25%
Sampdoria37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.39
Sampdoria
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 95 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.97
Sampdoria
1.09

allows per match

Lecce
1.68
Sampdoria
1.81

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
63%
Lecce or Sampdoria
75%
Draw or Sampdoria
63%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
17%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
75%
Lecce 2+ goals
40%
Lecce 3+ goals
16%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
75%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
40%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
50%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.68 · 80 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.81 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.97 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sampdoria attack 1.09 + Lecce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lecce scores more
37%
level
25%
Sampdoria scores more
37%

Lecce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Gastón RamírezSampdoriaSampdoria · F
8.9

Match Events

37'
N. Paz
40'
G. RamirezPenalty
46'
P. Tachtsidis← J. Petriccione
46'
B. Meccariello← K. Babacar
46'
F. Bonazzoli← M. Gabbiadini
50'
M. MancosuPenalty
58'
T. Augello
67'
M. Mancosu
68'
F. Falco← D. Farias
75'
G. RamirezPenalty
76'
A. Ekdal← R. Vieira
76'
T. Augello← N. Murru
77'
M. Thorsby
81'
R. Saponara← Y. Skakhov
84'
J. Jankto← P. M. Leris M.
88'
M. Calderoni← B. Vera
90+1'
B. Bereszynski

Possession

59%Lecce

Shots

15Lecce

Pass accuracy

52%Lecce

Statistics

LecceSampdoria
Overview
59%Possession41%
15Total Shots13
9Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots13
6On Target4
6Off Target6
3Blocked3
10Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
558Total Passes381
477Accurate Passes302
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Serie A: Lecce 1–2 Sampdoria

Sampdoria beat Lecce 2-1 in Serie A on July 1, 2020.

Goals: G. Ramirez (40' pen, 75' pen), M. Mancosu (50' pen).

Lecce controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.