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Lecce vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

Lecce
Lecce
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Napoli
Napoli
9/22/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 4Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Lecce25%
×Draw27%
Napoli48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
0.95
Napoli
1.42

Napoli creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.98
Napoli
1.42

allows per match

Lecce
1.41
Napoli
0.91

finishing

Lecce-0.37scores less
Napoli+0.23scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
52%
Lecce or Napoli
73%
Draw or Napoli
75%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
9%
Napoli wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
61%
Lecce 2+ goals
25%
Lecce 3+ goals
7%
Napoli 1+ goals
76%
Napoli 2+ goals
41%
Napoli 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
35%
Napoli (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 33 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.98 + Napoli defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Napoli attack 1.42 + Lecce defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lecce scores more
25%
level
27%
Napoli scores more
48%

Napoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Lecce 1–4 Napoli

Napoli beat Lecce 4-1 in Serie A on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.