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Lecce vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
Tete Morente 50'
A. Marušić 87'
V. Castellanos 45+3' (pen)
12/21/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 17Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lecce31%
×Draw28%
Lazio41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.08
Lazio
1.27

Lazio creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.91
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

Lecce
1.46
Lazio
1.26

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
59%
Lecce or Lazio
72%
Draw or Lazio
69%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
12%
Lazio wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
66%
Lecce 2+ goals
29%
Lecce 3+ goals
10%
Lazio 1+ goals
72%
Lazio 2+ goals
36%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
44%
Lazio (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.91 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lazio attack 1.08 + Lecce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lecce scores more
31%
level
28%
Lazio scores more
41%

Lazio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
W. FalconeLecceLecce · G
7.6

Match Events

-5'
Ylber Ramadani
45+1'
Frédéric Guilbert
45+3'
V. CastellanosPenalty
50'
Tete Morente
60'
B. Pierret← H. Rafia
60'
A. Rebić← N. Krstović
64'
Pedro← B. Dia
69'
Patrick Dorgu
70'
L. Pellegrini← Nuno Tavares
70'
L. Tchaouna← G. Isaksen
71'
Ante Rebić
79'
M. Kaba← M. Berisha
82'
Loum Tchaouna
83'
T. Noslin← M. Zaccagni
83'
A. Marušić← M. Lazzari
87'
A. Marušić
90+2'
N. Sansone← G. Jean

Possession

40%Lecce

Shots

11Lecce

Pass accuracy

47%Lecce

Statistics

LecceLazio
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots13
0.71Expected Goals (xG)1.85
6Corners6
13Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots13
2On Target7
4Off Target3
5Blocked3
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
355Total Passes523
273Accurate Passes458
77%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91
Discipline
13Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Lecce 1 – 2 Lazio

Lazio beat Lecce 2-1 in Serie A on December 21, 2024.

Goals: V. Castellanos (45+3' pen), Tete Morente (50'), A. Marušić (87').

Lazio controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Lecce.