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Lecce vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
2 – 2
Brescia
Brescia
2/9/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lecce50%
×Draw25%
Brescia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.62
Brescia
1.08

Lecce creates 50% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 117 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.96
Brescia
1.15

allows per match

Lecce
1.02
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
75%
Lecce or Brescia
75%
Draw or Brescia
50%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
26%
Brescia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
80%
Lecce 2+ goals
48%
Lecce 3+ goals
22%
Brescia 1+ goals
66%
Brescia 2+ goals
29%
Brescia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
66%
Brescia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.96 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.62

Brescia attack 1.15 + Lecce defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lecce scores more
50%
level
25%
Brescia scores more
25%

Lecce at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Lecce 2–2 Brescia

Lecce and Brescia drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.