Lecce 3–2 Alessandria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Lecce

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Alessandria

9/18/2021

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecce57%

×Draw22%

Alessandria21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchAlessandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.06

Lecce

1.92

Alessandria

1.06

Lecce creates 81% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.96

creates per match

1.11

1.02

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lecce

1.96

Alessandria

1.11

allows per match

Lecce

1.02

Alessandria

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par

Alessandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Alessandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

79%

Lecce or Alessandria

78%

Draw or Alessandria

43%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

34%

Alessandria wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

85%

Lecce 2+ goals

57%

Lecce 3+ goals

30%

Alessandria 1+ goals

65%

Alessandria 2+ goals

29%

Alessandria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

74%

Alessandria (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Alessandria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.96 + Alessandria defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Alessandria attack 1.11 + Lecce defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lecce scores more

57%

level

22%

Alessandria scores more

21%

Lecce at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff