Lecce 1–4 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lecce

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

M. Mancosu 54' (pen)

R. Leao 72'

A. Rebic 57'

G. Bonaventura 55'

S. Castillejo 26'

6/22/2020

Serie A · Round 27Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Lecce29%

×Draw26%

AC Milan45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.46

Lecce

1.10

AC Milan

1.46

AC Milan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

0.98

creates per match

1.50

1.41

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Lecce

0.98

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Lecce

1.41

AC Milan

1.23

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Lecce-0.37scores less

AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

55%

Lecce or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

71%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

11%

AC Milan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

67%

Lecce 2+ goals

30%

Lecce 3+ goals

10%

AC Milan 1+ goals

77%

AC Milan 2+ goals

43%

AC Milan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

39%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 33 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.98 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Lecce defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lecce scores more

29%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

45%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

AC Milan · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

S. Castillejo↳ H. Calhanoglu

40'

S. Kjaer← M. Gabbia

45+3'

S.

46'

G. Lapadula← K. Babacar

49'

F. Lucioni

54'

M. MancosuPenalty

55'

G. Bonaventura

57'

A. Rebic↳ H. Calhanoglu

64'

M. Gabbia

67'

A. Rebic← R. Leao

68'

S. Castillejo← A. Saelemaekers

72'

R. Leao↳ A. Conti

86'

G. Bonaventura← L. Biglia

86'

F. Kessie← L. Paqueta

86'

M. Mancosu← Y. Skakhov

87'

R. Saponara← B. Vera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceAC

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots17

5Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots17

1On Target11

6Off Target2

3Blocked4

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

407Total Passes663

342Accurate Passes585

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Lecce 1 – 4 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Lecce 4-1 in Serie A on June 22, 2020.

Goals: S. Castillejo (26'), M. Mancosu (54' pen), G. Bonaventura (55'), A. Rebic (57'), R. Leao (72').

AC Milan controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.

Lecce vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Lecce 1 – 4 AC Milan