AC Milan 3–0 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lecce

C. Pulišić 43'

T. Hernández 41'

Álvaro Morata 38'

9/27/2024

Serie A · Round 6Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

AC Milan54%

×Draw25%

Lecce22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.94

AC Milan

1.64

Lecce

0.94

AC Milan creates 74% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

1.67

creates per match

0.74

1.15

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

AC Milan

1.67

Lecce

0.74

allows per match

AC Milan

1.15

Lecce

1.60

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less

Lecce-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

78%

AC Milan or Lecce

75%

Draw or Lecce

46%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

29%

Lecce wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

81%

AC Milan 2+ goals

49%

AC Milan 3+ goals

23%

Lecce 1+ goals

61%

Lecce 2+ goals

24%

Lecce 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

71%

Lecce (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Lecce defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lecce attack 0.74 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AC Milan scores more

54%

level

25%

Lecce scores more

22%

AC Milan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Maignan

AC Milan · G

8.9

Match Events

34'

Federico Baschirotto

38'

Álvaro Morata↳ T. Hernández

41'

T. Hernández↳ Rafael Leão

43'

C. Pulišić

49'

Emerson Royal

56'

R. Loftus-Cheek← Álvaro Morata

59'

L. Banda← Tete Morente

63'

S. Chukwueze← C. Pulišić

63'

Y. Musah← Y. Fofana

73'

S. Pierotti← A. Rebić

73'

H. Rafia← B. Pierret

75'

D. Bartesaghi← T. Hernández

76'

L. Jović← T. Abraham

80'

Davide Bartesaghi

83'

R. Oudin← L. Coulibaly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACLecce

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots16

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.49

4Corners7

5Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target7

7Off Target6

2Blocked3

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

57%Possession43%

498Total Passes372

457Accurate Passes331

92%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

-1.13Goals Prevented-1.13

Discipline

5Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4

AC Milan 3 – 0 Lecce

AC Milan beat Lecce 3-0 in Serie A on September 27, 2024.

Goals: Álvaro Morata (38'), T. Hernández (41'), C. Pulišić (43').

AC Milan controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.

AC Milan vs Lecce — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AC Milan 3 – 0 Lecce