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Lecce U20 vs Udinese U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lecce U20
Lecce U20
FT
5 – 1
HT: 5 – 1
Udinese U20
Udinese U20
8/23/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecce U2069%
×Draw18%
Udinese U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U20
2.34
Udinese U20
0.93

Lecce U20 creates 152% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lecce U20
1.42
Udinese U20
0.68

allows per match

Lecce U20
1.18
Udinese U20
3.26

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par
Udinese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Udinese U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw
87%
Lecce U20 or Udinese U20
82%
Draw or Udinese U20
31%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+
45%
Udinese U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals
90%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
67%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
41%
Udinese U20 1+ goals
61%
Udinese U20 2+ goals
24%
Udinese U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
84%
Udinese U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Udinese U20 away — creates 0.68, concedes 3.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Udinese U20 defence 3.26 → ÷2 → 2.34

Udinese U20 attack 0.68 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lecce U20 scores more
69%
level
18%
Udinese U20 scores more
13%

Lecce U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Lecce U20 5–1 Udinese U20

Lecce U20 beat Udinese U20 5-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama in San Pietro in Lama.