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Lecce U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lecce U20
Lecce U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Monza U20
Monza U20
1/26/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lecce U2045%
×Draw25%
Monza U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U20
1.55
Monza U20
1.22

Lecce U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lecce U20
1.42
Monza U20
1.26

allows per match

Lecce U20
1.18
Monza U20
1.68

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par
Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Monza U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw
70%
Lecce U20 or Monza U20
75%
Draw or Monza U20
55%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+
23%
Monza U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals
79%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
46%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
20%
Monza U20 1+ goals
70%
Monza U20 2+ goals
34%
Monza U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Monza U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lecce U20 scores more
45%
level
25%
Monza U20 scores more
30%

Lecce U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecce U20 vs Monza U20

Monza U20 beat Lecce U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama in San Pietro in Lama.