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Lecce U20 vs Cesena U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lecce U20
Lecce U20
Preview
09:00
Cesena U20
Cesena U20
10/17/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7
41%
Lecce U20
model favours
41%24%35%

Lecce U20 raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lecce U2041%
×Draw24%
Cesena U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U20
1.62
Cesena U20
1.46

Lecce U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lecce U20
1.42
Cesena U20
1.74

allows per match

Lecce U20
1.18
Cesena U20
1.82

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par
Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw
65%
Lecce U20 or Cesena U20
76%
Draw or Cesena U20
59%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+
21%
Cesena U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals
80%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
48%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
22%
Cesena U20 1+ goals
77%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
43%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lecce U20 scores more
41%
level
24%
Cesena U20 scores more
35%

Lecce U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cesena U20 win just 24% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDLWL
U20
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lecce U20 host Cesena U20

October 17, 2026: Lecce U20 take on Cesena U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.