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Cesena U20 vs Lecce U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cesena U20
Cesena U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Lecce U20
Lecce U20
8/30/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cesena U2046%
×Draw23%
Lecce U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U20
1.77
Lecce U20
1.42

Cesena U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cesena U20
1.82
Lecce U20
1.47

allows per match

Cesena U20
1.36
Lecce U20
1.71

finishing

Cesena U20+0.00on par
Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cesena U20 or draw
69%
Cesena U20 or Lecce U20
77%
Draw or Lecce U20
54%

Winning margin

Cesena U20 wins by 2+
25%
Lecce U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cesena U20 1+ goals
83%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
53%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
26%
Lecce U20 1+ goals
76%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
41%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U20 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U20 attack 1.82 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Cesena U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cesena U20 scores more
46%
level
23%
Lecce U20 scores more
31%

Cesena U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cesena U20 3–1 Lecce U20

Cesena U20 beat Lecce U20 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro in Martorano di Cesena.