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Lecce U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lecce U20
Lecce U20
Preview
10:00
Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
11/21/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 11
41%
Lecce U20
model favours
41%26%33%

Lecce U20 raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lecce U2041%
×Draw26%
Atalanta U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U20
1.44
Atalanta U20
1.27

Lecce U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lecce U20
1.42
Atalanta U20
1.37

allows per match

Lecce U20
1.18
Atalanta U20
1.47

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par
Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw
67%
Lecce U20 or Atalanta U20
74%
Draw or Atalanta U20
59%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+
20%
Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals
76%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
42%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
18%
Atalanta U20 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
36%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lecce U20 scores more
41%
level
26%
Atalanta U20 scores more
33%

Lecce U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDLWL
U20
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lecce U20 face Atalanta U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Lecce U20 hosting Atalanta U20. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.