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Atalanta U20 vs Lecce U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lecce U20
Lecce U20
3/16/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 30Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta U2044%
×Draw24%
Lecce U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta U20
1.60
Lecce U20
1.34

Atalanta U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atalanta U20
1.50
Lecce U20
1.47

allows per match

Atalanta U20
1.21
Lecce U20
1.71

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par
Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw
68%
Atalanta U20 or Lecce U20
76%
Draw or Lecce U20
56%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
22%
Lecce U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals
80%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
47%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
22%
Lecce U20 1+ goals
74%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
39%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Lecce U20 scores more
32%

Atalanta U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Atalanta U20 2–1 Lecce U20

Atalanta U20 beat Lecce U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna in Alzano Lombardo.