Lecce U19 3–2 Genoa U19: Result & Stats

Lecce U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Genoa U19

1/13/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 17Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Lecce U1945%

×Draw25%

Genoa U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lecce U19Expected goals in this matchGenoa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Lecce U19

1.54

Genoa U19

1.21

Lecce U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

1.48

creates per match

1.26

1.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lecce U19

1.48

Genoa U19

1.26

allows per match

Lecce U19

1.17

Genoa U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce U19+0.00on par

Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lecce U19 or draw

70%

Lecce U19 or Genoa U19

75%

Draw or Genoa U19

55%

Winning margin

Lecce U19 wins by 2+

23%

Genoa U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lecce U19 1+ goals

79%

Lecce U19 2+ goals

45%

Lecce U19 3+ goals

20%

Genoa U19 1+ goals

70%

Genoa U19 2+ goals

34%

Genoa U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lecce U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U19 attack 1.48 + Genoa U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Genoa U19 attack 1.26 + Lecce U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lecce U19 scores more

45%

level

25%

Genoa U19 scores more

30%

Lecce U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff