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Leça vs SC Braga — Taça de Portugal 2018

Leça
Leça
FT
1 – 3
SC Braga
SC Braga
Adilson 85'
W. Eduardo 55', 25'
R. Horta 42'
10/19/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Leça Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leça13%
×Draw20%
SC Braga67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leça
0.72
SC Braga
1.98

SC Braga creates 175% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Leça
0.50
SC Braga
2.29

allows per match

Leça
1.67
SC Braga
0.95

finishing

Leça+0.00on par
SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leça ↓

SC Braga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–213%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leça or draw
33%
Leça or SC Braga
80%
Draw or SC Braga
87%

Winning margin

Leça wins by 2+
3%
SC Braga wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Leça 1+ goals
51%
Leça 2+ goals
16%
Leça 3+ goals
4%
SC Braga 1+ goals
86%
SC Braga 2+ goals
59%
SC Braga 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Leça (draw refunded)
16%
SC Braga (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leça at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

SC Braga away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leça attack 0.50 + SC Braga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

SC Braga attack 2.29 + Leça defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Leça scores more
13%
level
20%
SC Braga scores more
67%

SC Braga at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
W. Eduardo
26'
Simoes
42'
R. Horta
53'
Paulo← Paulo
55'
W. Eduardo
61'
J. Paulino← J. Paulino
65'
P. Lopes
69'
Ze Carlos
85'
Adilson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leça 1 – 3 SC Braga

SC Braga beat Leça 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2019.

Goals: W. Eduardo (25', 55'), R. Horta (42'), Adilson (85').

The match was played at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube in Leça da Palmeira.