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Leça vs Oliveirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Leça
Leça
FT
0 – 0
Oliveirense
Oliveirense
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Leça Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leça12%
×Draw22%
Oliveirense67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leça
0.60
Oliveirense
1.83

Oliveirense creates 205% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Leça
0.50
Oliveirense
2.00

allows per match

Leça
1.67
Oliveirense
0.71

finishing

Leça+0.00on par
Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leça ↓

Oliveirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–116%
0–215%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leça or draw
33%
Leça or Oliveirense
78%
Draw or Oliveirense
88%

Winning margin

Leça wins by 2+
3%
Oliveirense wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Leça 1+ goals
45%
Leça 2+ goals
12%
Leça 3+ goals
2%
Oliveirense 1+ goals
84%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
54%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Leça (draw refunded)
15%
Oliveirense (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leça at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leça attack 0.50 + Oliveirense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Oliveirense attack 2.00 + Leça defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Leça scores more
12%
level
22%
Oliveirense scores more
67%

Oliveirense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
I. Boakye
70'
I. Boakye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Leça 0–0 Oliveirense

Leça and Oliveirense drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube in Leça da Palmeira.