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Leça vs Lusitânia Lourosa — League #458 2026

Leça
Leça
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
3/12/2023League #458League #458 · Group B - 22Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leça27%
×Draw28%
Lusitânia Lourosa45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leça
0.92
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Leça
1.50
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.33

allows per match

Leça
1.25
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.33

finishing

Leça+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leça ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leça or draw
55%
Leça or Lusitânia Lourosa
72%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
73%

Winning margin

Leça wins by 2+
9%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leça 1+ goals
60%
Leça 2+ goals
23%
Leça 3+ goals
7%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
72%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
37%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leça (draw refunded)
37%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leça at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leça attack 1.50 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.33 + Leça defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leça scores more
27%
level
28%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
45%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #458: Leça 1–2 Lusitânia Lourosa

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Leça 2-1 in League #458 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Leça Futebol Clube in Leça da Palmeira.