Leça 1–0 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Leça

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GIL Vicente

Diogo Rosado 65'

11/20/2021

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Leça Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leça12%

×Draw23%

GIL Vicente66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeçaExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

1.72

Leça

0.56

GIL Vicente

1.72

GIL Vicente creates 207% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.50

creates per match

1.77

1.67

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Leça

0.50

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

Leça

1.67

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leça+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leça ↓

GIL Vicente →

0–010%

0–118%

0–215%

0–39%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leça or draw

34%

Leça or GIL Vicente

77%

Draw or GIL Vicente

88%

Winning margin

Leça wins by 2+

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Leça 1+ goals

43%

Leça 2+ goals

11%

Leça 3+ goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

82%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

51%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Leça (draw refunded)

15%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leça at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leça attack 0.50 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Leça defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Leça scores more

12%

level

23%

GIL Vicente scores more

66%

GIL Vicente at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Perez

34'

E. Hackman

42'

D. Rosado

56'

K. Ballack

61'

K. Fujimoto← Matheus Bueno

61'

Samuel Lino← B. Aouacheria

65'

69'

79'

90+3'

Leça

GIL

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Luís Pinto

Leça substitutes

KattyPinhoNevesLapushenkoMonteiroNaniLopes

Manager: Ricardo Soares

61'▲K. Fujimoto←▼Matheus Bueno

61'▲Samuel Lino←▼B. Aouacheria

GIL Vicente substitutes

10Fujimoto29Lino1Frelih2Carlos9Navarro15Aburjania17Hanne