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Lebring vs Wildon — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lebring
Lebring
FT
3 – 4
Wildon
Wildon
6/7/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30sanSirro Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Lebring40%
×Draw21%
Wildon39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebring
1.91
Wildon
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 75 away

creates per match

Lebring
2.16
Wildon
2.08

allows per match

Lebring
1.70
Wildon
1.65

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par
Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Wildon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lebring or draw
61%
Lebring or Wildon
79%
Draw or Wildon
60%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+
21%
Wildon wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals
85%
Lebring 2+ goals
57%
Lebring 3+ goals
30%
Wildon 1+ goals
85%
Wildon 2+ goals
56%
Wildon 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)
50%
Wildon (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Wildon away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Wildon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wildon attack 2.08 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lebring scores more
40%
level
21%
Wildon scores more
39%

Lebring at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lebring vs Wildon

Wildon beat Lebring 4-3 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at sanSirro Stadion Lebring in Lebring.