Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lebring vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lebring
Lebring
CANC
17:00
Liezen
Liezen
5/22/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 27Greenhouse Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Lebring64%
×Draw18%
Liezen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebring
2.45
Liezen
1.23

Lebring creates 99% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lebring
2.16
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Lebring
1.70
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lebring or draw
82%
Lebring or Liezen
82%
Draw or Liezen
36%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+
42%
Liezen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals
91%
Lebring 2+ goals
70%
Lebring 3+ goals
44%
Liezen 1+ goals
71%
Liezen 2+ goals
35%
Liezen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)
78%
Liezen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.45

Liezen attack 0.76 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lebring scores more
64%
level
18%
Liezen scores more
18%

Lebring at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lebring host Liezen

May 22, 2020: Lebring take on Liezen in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lebring host Liezen at Greenhouse Stadion Lebring.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.