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Lebring vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lebring
Lebring
CANC
00:00
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
3/20/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Greenhouse Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lebring62%
×Draw18%
Hitthaller St. Michael20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebring
2.53
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.39

Lebring creates 82% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lebring
2.16
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Lebring
1.70
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lebring or draw
80%
Lebring or Hitthaller St. Michael
82%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
38%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+
41%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals
92%
Lebring 2+ goals
71%
Lebring 3+ goals
46%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
75%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
40%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)
76%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.53

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lebring scores more
62%
level
18%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
20%

Lebring at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lebring host Hitthaller St. Michael

March 20, 2020: Lebring take on Hitthaller St. Michael in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lebring host Hitthaller St. Michael at Greenhouse Stadion Lebring.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.