Lebring 2–2 Bruck an der Mur: Result & Stats

Lebring

FT

2 – 2

Bruck an der Mur

8/18/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 3sanSirro Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Lebring57%

×Draw20%

Bruck an der Mur24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebringExpected goals in this matchBruck an der Mur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.50

Lebring

2.37

Bruck an der Mur

1.50

Lebring creates 58% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 74 away

2.16

creates per match

1.31

1.70

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Lebring

2.16

Bruck an der Mur

1.31

allows per match

Lebring

1.70

Bruck an der Mur

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Bruck an der Mur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Lebring or draw

76%

Lebring or Bruck an der Mur

80%

Draw or Bruck an der Mur

43%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+

35%

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals

91%

Lebring 2+ goals

68%

Lebring 3+ goals

42%

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals

78%

Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals

44%

Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)

70%

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.37

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lebring scores more

57%

level

20%

Bruck an der Mur scores more

24%

Lebring at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff