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Lebrijana vs Puente Genil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Lebrijana
Lebrijana
CANC
22:00
Puente Genil
Puente Genil
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 36Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lebrijana37%
×Draw27%
Puente Genil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebrijana
1.26
Puente Genil
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

creates per match

Lebrijana
1.29
Puente Genil
1.33

allows per match

Lebrijana
1.18
Puente Genil
1.23

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par
Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Puente Genil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw
64%
Lebrijana or Puente Genil
73%
Draw or Puente Genil
63%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+
16%
Puente Genil wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals
72%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
36%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
13%
Puente Genil 1+ goals
71%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
36%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)
50%
Puente Genil (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lebrijana scores more
37%
level
27%
Puente Genil scores more
36%

Lebrijana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lebrijana host Puente Genil

May 2, 2020: Lebrijana take on Puente Genil in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lebrijana host Puente Genil at Estadio Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.