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Lebrijana vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Lebrijana
Lebrijana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Conil
Conil
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lebrijana48%
×Draw27%
Conil26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebrijana
1.45
Conil
0.99

Lebrijana creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 111 away

creates per match

Lebrijana
1.29
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Lebrijana
1.18
Conil
1.60

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw
74%
Lebrijana or Conil
73%
Draw or Conil
52%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+
24%
Conil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals
77%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
42%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
18%
Conil 1+ goals
63%
Conil 2+ goals
26%
Conil 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)
65%
Conil (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Conil attack 0.81 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lebrijana scores more
48%
level
27%
Conil scores more
26%

Lebrijana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Lebrijana 2–2 Conil

Lebrijana and Conil drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.