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Lebrijana vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Lebrijana
Lebrijana
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lebrijana35%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebrijana
1.09
Ciudad de Lucena
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lebrijana
1.29
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Lebrijana
1.18
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw
64%
Lebrijana or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
65%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+
14%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals
66%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
30%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
10%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
67%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
31%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)
49%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lebrijana scores more
35%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
36%

Ciudad de Lucena at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lebrijana 3 – 0 Ciudad de Lucena

Lebrijana beat Ciudad de Lucena 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.