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Lebrijana vs Castilleja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Lebrijana
Lebrijana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castilleja
Castilleja
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lebrijana47%
×Draw26%
Castilleja27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebrijana
1.50
Castilleja
1.06

Lebrijana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lebrijana
1.29
Castilleja
0.94

allows per match

Lebrijana
1.18
Castilleja
1.71

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par
Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Castilleja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw
73%
Lebrijana or Castilleja
74%
Draw or Castilleja
53%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+
24%
Castilleja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals
78%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
44%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
19%
Castilleja 1+ goals
65%
Castilleja 2+ goals
29%
Castilleja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)
64%
Castilleja (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Castilleja attack 0.94 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lebrijana scores more
47%
level
26%
Castilleja scores more
27%

Lebrijana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lebrijana vs Castilleja

Lebrijana and Castilleja drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.