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Lebrijana vs AD Ceuta FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Lebrijana
Lebrijana
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lebrijana43%
×Draw27%
AD Ceuta FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebrijana
1.40
AD Ceuta FC
1.13

Lebrijana creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lebrijana
1.29
AD Ceuta FC
1.08

allows per match

Lebrijana
1.18
AD Ceuta FC
1.50

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw
70%
Lebrijana or AD Ceuta FC
73%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
57%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+
20%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals
75%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
41%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
17%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
68%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
31%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)
59%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lebrijana scores more
43%
level
27%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
30%

Lebrijana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Lebrijana 1–3 AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC beat Lebrijana 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.