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Lebanon W vs Palestine W — Friendlies Women 2026

Lebanon W
Lebanon W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palestine W
Palestine W
Lili Iskandar 70'
N. Youssef 45'
5/29/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesChampville Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lebanon W55%
×Draw23%
Palestine W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebanon W
1.78
Palestine W
1.02

Lebanon W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lebanon W
1.92
Palestine W
0.82

allows per match

Lebanon W
1.23
Palestine W
1.64

finishing

Lebanon W+0.00on par
Palestine W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon W ↓

Palestine W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lebanon W or draw
78%
Lebanon W or Palestine W
77%
Draw or Palestine W
45%

Winning margin

Lebanon W wins by 2+
31%
Palestine W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lebanon W 1+ goals
83%
Lebanon W 2+ goals
53%
Lebanon W 3+ goals
26%
Palestine W 1+ goals
64%
Palestine W 2+ goals
27%
Palestine W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lebanon W (draw refunded)
72%
Palestine W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Palestine W away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon W attack 1.92 + Palestine W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Palestine W attack 0.82 + Lebanon W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lebanon W scores more
55%
level
23%
Palestine W scores more
22%

Lebanon W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lebanon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
N. Youssef
70'
Lili Iskandar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Lebanon W 1–1 Palestine W

Lebanon W and Palestine W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on May 29, 2025.

Goals: N. Youssef (45'), Lili Iskandar (70').

The match was played at Champville Field in Dik El Mehdi.