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Lebanon vs China — Asian Cup 2019

Lebanon
Lebanon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
China
China
1/17/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lebanon36%
×Draw30%
China33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebanon
1.06
China
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lebanon
1.33
China
1.00

allows per match

Lebanon
1.00
China
0.80

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par
China+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

China →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw
67%
Lebanon or China
70%
Draw or China
64%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+
14%
China wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals
65%
Lebanon 2+ goals
29%
Lebanon 3+ goals
9%
China 1+ goals
63%
China 2+ goals
26%
China 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)
52%
China (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

China away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 1.33 + China defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

China attack 1.00 + Lebanon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lebanon scores more
36%
level
30%
China scores more
33%

Lebanon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lebanon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Lebanon 0–0 China

Lebanon and China drew 0-0 in Asian Cup on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.