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Leatherhead vs Dorking Wanderers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leatherhead
Leatherhead
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers
A. Rutherford 5', 3'
8/31/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leatherhead27%
×Draw21%
Dorking Wanderers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leatherhead
1.54
Dorking Wanderers
2.17

Dorking Wanderers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leatherhead
1.75
Dorking Wanderers
2.33

allows per match

Leatherhead
2.00
Dorking Wanderers
1.33

finishing

Leatherhead+0.00on par
Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leatherhead ↓

Dorking Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Leatherhead or draw
48%
Leatherhead or Dorking Wanderers
79%
Draw or Dorking Wanderers
73%

Winning margin

Leatherhead wins by 2+
13%
Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Leatherhead 1+ goals
79%
Leatherhead 2+ goals
45%
Leatherhead 3+ goals
20%
Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals
89%
Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals
64%
Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Leatherhead (draw refunded)
35%
Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leatherhead at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Dorking Wanderers away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leatherhead attack 1.75 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.33 + Leatherhead defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leatherhead scores more
27%
level
21%
Dorking Wanderers scores more
52%

Dorking Wanderers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Rutherford
5'
A. Rutherford

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Leatherhead 0–2 Dorking Wanderers

Dorking Wanderers beat Leatherhead 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 31, 2020.

Goals: A. Rutherford (3', 5').