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Leatherhead vs AFC Wimbledon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leatherhead
Leatherhead
FT
1 – 2
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
8/11/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fetcham Grove

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leatherhead27%
×Draw22%
AFC Wimbledon50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leatherhead
1.38
AFC Wimbledon
1.94

AFC Wimbledon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Leatherhead
1.75
AFC Wimbledon
1.88

allows per match

Leatherhead
2.00
AFC Wimbledon
1.00

finishing

Leatherhead+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leatherhead ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Leatherhead or draw
50%
Leatherhead or AFC Wimbledon
78%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
73%

Winning margin

Leatherhead wins by 2+
12%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Leatherhead 1+ goals
75%
Leatherhead 2+ goals
40%
Leatherhead 3+ goals
16%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
86%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
58%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Leatherhead (draw refunded)
35%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leatherhead at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leatherhead attack 1.75 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.88 + Leatherhead defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leatherhead scores more
27%
level
22%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
50%

AFC Wimbledon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Leatherhead 1–2 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Leatherhead 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 11, 2020.

The match was played at Fetcham Grove in Leatherhead, Surrey.