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Leandro N. Alem vs Argentino Rosario — Primera C 2026

Leandro N. Alem
Leandro N. Alem
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Argentino Rosario
Argentino Rosario
L. Leguizamon 39' (pen)
N. Fortini 12'
7/12/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Leandro N. Alem38%
×Draw29%
Argentino Rosario34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leandro N. Alem
1.16
Argentino Rosario
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 47 away

creates per match

Leandro N. Alem
1.01
Argentino Rosario
1.11

allows per match

Leandro N. Alem
1.04
Argentino Rosario
1.30

finishing

Leandro N. Alem+0.00on par
Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leandro N. Alem ↓

Argentino Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leandro N. Alem or draw
66%
Leandro N. Alem or Argentino Rosario
71%
Draw or Argentino Rosario
62%

Winning margin

Leandro N. Alem wins by 2+
16%
Argentino Rosario wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leandro N. Alem 1+ goals
69%
Leandro N. Alem 2+ goals
32%
Leandro N. Alem 3+ goals
11%
Argentino Rosario 1+ goals
66%
Argentino Rosario 2+ goals
29%
Argentino Rosario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leandro N. Alem (draw refunded)
53%
Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leandro N. Alem at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 140 matches

Argentino Rosario away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leandro N. Alem attack 1.01 + Argentino Rosario defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Argentino Rosario attack 1.11 + Leandro N. Alem defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leandro N. Alem scores more
38%
level
29%
Argentino Rosario scores more
34%

Leandro N. Alem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leandro N. Alem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
N. Fortini
36'
B. Risso
39'
L. LeguizamonPenalty
83'
B. Cabrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leandro N. Alem vs Argentino Rosario

Leandro N. Alem beat Argentino Rosario 2-0 in Primera C on July 12, 2026.

Goals: N. Fortini (12'), L. Leguizamon (39' pen).