Leamington 3–0 Southport: Result & Stats

Leamington

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Southport

C. Stewart 62' (pen), 48'

R. Evans 24'

10/22/2024

League #50 · North - 13Your Co-op Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leamington62%

×Draw21%

Southport17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeamingtonExpected goals in this matchSouthport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.91

Leamington

1.99

Southport

0.91

Leamington creates 119% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 34 away

2.33

creates per match

1.15

0.67

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Leamington

2.33

Southport

1.15

allows per match

Leamington

0.67

Southport

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leamington+0.00on par

Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leamington ↓

Southport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leamington or draw

83%

Leamington or Southport

79%

Draw or Southport

38%

Winning margin

Leamington wins by 2+

38%

Southport wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Leamington 1+ goals

86%

Leamington 2+ goals

59%

Leamington 3+ goals

32%

Southport 1+ goals

60%

Southport 2+ goals

23%

Southport 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Leamington (draw refunded)

79%

Southport (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leamington at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leamington attack 2.33 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Southport attack 1.15 + Leamington defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leamington scores more

62%

level

21%

Southport scores more

17%

Leamington at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leamington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

R. Evans

48'

C. Stewart

60'

K. Quansah

62'

C. StewartPenalty

66'

J. Edwards← E. Williams

69'

L. Burgess← D. Philliskirk

69'

S. Hilton← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

75'

E. Rowe← H. Landers

80'

T. Berridge← W. Shorrock

86'

J. Stafford← M. Carver

88'

J. Medrano← A. Lynn

Leamington

Southport

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: P. Holleran

66'▲J. Edwards←▼E. Williams

75'▲E. Rowe←▼H. Landers

80'▲T. Berridge←▼W. Shorrock

88'▲J. Medrano←▼A. Lynn

Leamington substitutes

EdwardsRoweBerridgeMedranoStreete

Manager: J. Bentley

69'▲L. Burgess←▼D. Philliskirk

69'▲S. Hilton←▼D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

86'▲J. Stafford←▼M. Carver

Southport substitutes

BurgessHiltonStaffordHeathGomes