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Lealtad vs Vallobín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vallobín
Vallobín
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lealtad61%
×Draw24%
Vallobín15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.68
Vallobín
0.69

Lealtad creates 143% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.50
Vallobín
0.68

allows per match

Lealtad
0.70
Vallobín
1.86

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Vallobín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
85%
Lealtad or Vallobín
76%
Draw or Vallobín
39%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
34%
Vallobín wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
81%
Lealtad 2+ goals
50%
Lealtad 3+ goals
24%
Vallobín 1+ goals
50%
Vallobín 2+ goals
15%
Vallobín 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
80%
Vallobín (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vallobín attack 0.68 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lealtad scores more
61%
level
24%
Vallobín scores more
15%

Lealtad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs Vallobín

Lealtad beat Vallobín 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.