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Lealtad vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lealtad50%
×Draw26%
Tuilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.48
Tuilla
0.93

Lealtad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.50
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Lealtad
0.70
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
76%
Lealtad or Tuilla
74%
Draw or Tuilla
50%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
25%
Tuilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
77%
Lealtad 2+ goals
43%
Lealtad 3+ goals
19%
Tuilla 1+ goals
61%
Tuilla 2+ goals
24%
Tuilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
68%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lealtad scores more
50%
level
26%
Tuilla scores more
24%

Lealtad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs Tuilla

Lealtad beat Tuilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.