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Lealtad vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Lealtad51%
×Draw26%
San Martín23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.52
San Martín
0.91

Lealtad creates 67% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.50
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Lealtad
0.70
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
77%
Lealtad or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
49%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
26%
San Martín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
78%
Lealtad 2+ goals
45%
Lealtad 3+ goals
20%
San Martín 1+ goals
60%
San Martín 2+ goals
23%
San Martín 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
69%
San Martín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Martín attack 1.12 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lealtad scores more
51%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
23%

Lealtad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs San Martín

Lealtad beat San Martín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.