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Lealtad vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
11/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lealtad36%
×Draw32%
Cultural Leonesa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lealtad
0.69
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Lealtad
0.69
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
68%
Lealtad or Cultural Leonesa
68%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
64%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
14%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
63%
Lealtad 2+ goals
26%
Lealtad 3+ goals
8%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
60%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
23%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
53%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 0.69 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Lealtad defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lealtad scores more
36%
level
32%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
32%

Lealtad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs Cultural Leonesa

Lealtad beat Cultural Leonesa 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.